Violent extremism and terrorism still relevant
Social polarization and fragmentation bring with them the risk of violent extremism. Violent Covid extremism is an example of this. However, as the pandemic comes to an end, it is likely that this form of extremism will calm down and diminish. However, the FIS expects that certain individuals or groups, who have been radicalized during the pandemic, will turn to new issues and continue their violent activities. Violent left-wing and right-wing extremists remain the primary threat. The terrorist threat in Switzerland remains elevated. The threat emanates primarily from the jihadist movement, and in particular from individuals who have been inspired by jihadist propaganda. "Islamic State" and al-Qaeda are the major exponents of the jihadist movement in Europe and are thus also central to the terrorist threat in Switzerland. The terrorist threat is becoming more diffuse in Europe since 2020, because it is increasingly emanating from individuals acting autonomously and who have no direct links to "Islamic State" or al-Qaeda.
Espionage is difficult to pinpoint geographically, especially if it is carried out partially or wholly using cyber tools. Moreover, espionage usually involves a package of specific activities, which – even if it is possible to pinpoint them geographically – rarely take place in just a single location. Lastly, as espionage is necessarily conducted covertly, the overall extent of the espionage activities in a particular area is not fully known to any of the actors involved, neither the spies, their victims nor counterespionage personnel. Nevertheless, there are indicators for estimating the scale of espionage at a location at least roughly. These include the number of known and suspected intelligence officers and sources, as well as the scope of intelligence activities detected at a particular location. Geneva-City and Geneva Region are seen as hot spot from Swiss Federal Intel.
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